When the first-quarter 2026 capex numbers landed below JPMorgan's $13 billion forecast — coming in at a mere $11.9 billion — it would be easy to sound alarm bells. But before investors panic, the bank is quick to point out a comforting explanation: seasonality, not fundamentals, is the culprit.
The Big Three Hold Their Ground
AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have all reaffirmed their full-year guidance, projecting aggregate capital expenditures to hit $50 billion in 2026, up roughly 2% year-on-year. That recovery trend follows a disappointing 2024 and suggests the industry is back on a modest growth trajectory. Each player's guidance tells its own story:
- AT&T: $23–24 billion full-year capex
- T-Mobile: ~$10 billion
- Verizon: $16–16.5 billion (down roughly $4B YoY if Frontier is included in the 2025 baseline)
Verizon stands out as the outlier — the company is deliberately cutting spending to sharpen its operational efficiency, a strategic choice that contrasts sharply with AT&T and T-Mobile's expansion posture.
Cable Broadband: A Mixed Picture
Comcast and Charter posted a 15% year-on-year capex jump in Q1 2026, meeting market expectations. Short-term competitive pressures and network modernization efforts are fueling this surge. But JPMorgan isn't celebrating yet — long-term structural growth drivers remain elusive.
Charter is a case in point: management has signaled plans to scale back annual capital expenditures to roughly **$8 billion by 2028**, down from today's ~$11.5 billion. That kind of deliberate pullback doesn't signal confidence in sustained secular growth.
Cable/broadband operators collectively are tracking toward approximately $25 billion in 2026E capex, down 1% year-on-year on a normalized basis — a figure that strips out Lumen's asset divestiture effects to give a cleaner read on underlying trends.
Key Data at a Glance
| Metric | 2026E / Q1 2026 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Telecom Total Capex | $50B (full-year) | +2% |
| U.S. Telecom Q1 2026 | $11.9B | +8% |
| Cable/Broadband Q1 2026 | ~$6B | +15% |
| Verizon 2026E Capex | $16–16.5B | −3% |
Bottom Line
JPMorgan's take: the U.S. telecom sector's spending trajectory remains resilient but cyclically driven. AT&T and T-Mobile are investing to grow; Verizon is pruning to profit. Cable broadband's Q1 strength is real but likely temporary — the multi-year picture suggests caution. For investors tracking this space, the divergence between telecom and cable strategies is the central story worth watching in 2026.
Source: JPMorgan "Tracking Capital Expenditure of Telecommunications and Cable Broadband Operators" — Macrostream
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